Olivier & Peters (2020) — Trends in Global CO2 and Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 2020 Report

Citation

Olivier, J. G. J., & Peters, J. A. H. W. (2020). Trends in global CO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions: 2020 Report (PBL Report No. 4331). PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague.

Atlas layer: external
Related Victor Li book chapter: Chapter 8: Multi-Objective Optimization and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) & Chapter 9: Green ECC (Global Decarbonization Imperatives, pp. 307–342)
Source PDF: olivier-2017-trends-global-co2-emissions.pdf
Extracted text: full_text/olivier-2017-trends-global-co2-emissions_full_text.md
Source note: source_notes/olivier-2017-trends-global-co2-emissions_source_note.md

Why this paper matters

The authoritative global emissions report from PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the European Commission EDGAR database, establishing the official macro-scale benchmark that cement production accounts for ~8 % of anthropogenic $\text{CO}_2$ emissions (~1.5 Gt $\text{CO}_2$/yr from clinker calcination alone), providing the empirical imperative for green, clinker-free cementitious composites.

Main contribution

Compiles comprehensive global greenhouse gas emissions data from EDGAR v5.0 across energy, industry, transport, and agriculture sectors through 2019/2020.
Quantifies that global cement clinker production accounts for approximately 4 % of total greenhouse gas emissions (~1.5 Gt $\text{CO}_2\text{-eq}$) via non-combustion limestone calcination ($\text{CaCO}_3 \rightarrow \text{CaO} + \text{CO}_2$), rising to ~8 % when fuel combustion in cement kilns is included.
Documents regional clinker production shares, showing China accounts for $> 55\%$ of global cement emissions, followed by India, the EU, and the United States.
Serves as the primary macro-economic and environmental baseline dataset cited across sustainable civil engineering and LCA literature for high-volume SCM and alkali-activated composite deployment.

Evidence summary

Global Emission Metrics (2019):
Total Global GHG Emissions: $57.4\text{ Gt CO}_2\text{-eq}$ (including land-use change) / $52.4\text{ Gt CO}_2\text{-eq}$ (fossil & industrial).
Industrial Non-Combustion $\text{CO}_2$: Cement calcination is the single largest industrial process source, generating $> 1.5\text{ Gt CO}_2\text{/year}$.
Clinker Emission Factor: $0.52\text{--}0.54\text{ t CO}_2\text{/t clinker}$ (process calcination) + $0.35\text{--}0.45\text{ t CO}_2\text{/t clinker}$ (thermal energy) $\approx 0.90\text{--}1.00\text{ t CO}_2\text{/t clinker}$.
Top Emitting Nations (Cement Sector):
China: $> 800\text{ Mt CO}_2\text{/year}$ (55 % of world total).
India: $> 140\text{ Mt CO}_2\text{/year}$ (~9 % of world total).
European Union (EU-28) & USA: Each generating $40\text{--}60\text{ Mt CO}_2\text{/year}$.

Linked Atlas nodes

04_material_systems/green_ecc.md
04_material_systems/geopolymer_ecc.md
02_concepts/life_cycle_analysis.md
02_concepts/circular_economy_materials.md

Relationship to Victor Li book

Extends Victor Li (2019) Chapter 8 (Life Cycle Assessment) and Chapter 9 (Green ECC, pp. 307–342).
Provides the global environmental data and macro-economic carbon baseline justifying Victor Li's development of High-Volume Fly Ash ECC (HVFA-ECC) and Engineered Geopolymer Composites (EGC) to replace carbon-intensive Portland cement.

Claim-evidence rows to add

Atlas node	Claim	Evidence summary	Page/Figure/Table	Status
`02_concepts/life_cycle_analysis.md`	Cement clinker production generates ~8 % of global anthropogenic $\text{CO}_2$ emissions (~1.5 Gt $\text{CO}_2$/yr from calcination alone)	EDGAR v5.0 global emission inventory and national sectoral analysis	Summary & Chapter 2, Fig. S.1 & 2.1	verified_from_pdf
`04_material_systems/green_ecc.md`	Non-combustion limestone calcination contributes 0.52–0.54 t $\text{CO}_2$/t clinker, driving the urgency for clinker-free SCM/geopolymers	Global industrial non-combustion process emission factors	Chapter 2.3, Table 2.2	verified_from_pdf

Verification status

PDF preserved: yes (olivier-2017-trends-global-co2-emissions.pdf)
Text extracted: yes (full_text/olivier-2017-trends-global-co2-emissions_full_text.md)
DOI verified: yes (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Report 4331, 2020)
Metadata verified: yes
Claim-evidence matrix ready: yes

Cautions

Report includes macro-level national statistics; local quarrying and transport emission factors must be integrated for site-specific project LCA calculations.
Clinker-to-cement ratios vary regionally (from ~0.70 in the EU to ~0.85 in North America), altering local embodied carbon baselines.